Firing up my RSS reader this morning or going to any one of the numerous sites I typically visit showed an overwhelming amount of articles written about Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst for our industry. He recently put out his status report on where he thinks the video game industry is headed.
Reading all the headlines, one thing became clear: people take Pachter’s word for gold. I have absolutely no idea why, as he’s been wrong more than right. As with most forward-looking statements, predictions and hopes get thrown at the wall en masse and only a couple will stick. That’s the same with Pachter.
The guy is a financial analyst. When did this material become so important to your gaming habits? Does Pachter’s prediction of a Wii HD mean it’s going to happen? No. Did his prediction of Sony and the PS3 running away with this generation happen? Absolutely not. Do we need to hang on every word Pachter says or types with bated breath? No. Maybe we should all take a step back and focus on having fun playing games, which is what we’re really all here for, isn’t it? Can I write any more sentences that end with a question mark in one paragraph?
Michael Pachter is good at investments. Predictions, on the other hand, are hit and miss for Wedbush Morgan’s industry analyst. He’s come up with some crazy conjecture, like the PS3 being the out-the-gate winner this generation.
Up on the hit list with Pachter is the next generation of gaming consoles, which he states will come in 2013, if at all. One exception to the rule is a predicted Wii HD in 2010, which will bring better graphics to Nintendo’s cash cow.
I think the “if at all” portion is wrong; sorry, Pachter. While I do think the current generation will last significantly longer than previous console iterations, I do think at least one more will be coming to a living room near you before we hit the mark of online-only (which is where everything is eventually headed). That’s just my opinion. What about you?
The name Pachter has become a household name in the gaming industry. If anyone has anything to say about anything, most people tend to look his way. It’s his job as an analyst to make predictions and to talk about anything remotely connected to numbers in this industry; It’s how the man makes hist shitload of money. Every month we get an NPD sales chart, and every month we see Michael Pachter at the forefront itching to give his two cents (which he eventually does).
March NPD numbers looked a bit gloomy. Sales in both hardware and software weren’t as bright as some would have hoped, but it wasn’t the worst of things. Pachter, however, commented on the Wii’s declined software sales; almost as though as he himself was going to donate a tear of sorrow for its twenty-six percent drop. He went on to say,
Given that the installed base of Wii consoles has doubled in the past year, we find it remarkable (and somewhat disconcerting) that Wii software sales were actually down year-over-year in March, dropping by $72 million, or 26 percent
Of course, it’s not like he’s predicting the end of the Wii’s success or anything to that extend. He, along with a couple of other folks, were just a little surprised to see such a weak performance in software sales for the Wii given its enormous install base. With regards to the rest of the year’s performance, Pachter predicts that the Wii will have a very strong summer with the release of the upcoming Wii Sports Resort and Wii MotionPlus. Anything less, of course, is blasphemy in the world of Nintendo.
Anyone who follows the gaming industry habitually knows who Michael Pachter is. To sum him up, he’s the idiot that who “foresees” occurrences in the gaming industry – an analyst, if you will. Sometimes, he can be hitting the mark by announcing the obvious things like “Xbox 360 to sell well in 2009” or just look stupid by saying things like, “This console generation is the last.” Oh, wait. He did say that this console generation would be the last. With that, my friends, I leave you to decide the level of idiocy in which Pachter falls in.
The claim was made during GamesBeat 2009 – a conference going on alongside GDC 09 – where the Wedbush Morgan analyst declared that the future belonged to a “standard delivery platform” instead. Of course, these assumptions, I’m pretty sure, were made right after Mr. Pachter learned about Rearden’s OnLive service (a service which streams games directly from a server to your PC/Mac/TV rather than using your own hardware to play games).
But, according to 1UP, Pacther based his claimed on the rising cost of console game development, claiming that third-party publishers “are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720.” Of course, we can call bullshit on this. Why? Simply because these console producers make a majority of their money in selling their consoles. With development kits dropping in price from both Sony’s and Microsoft’s end, we can expect to see a more fluent, and steady, cost in development. Not to say that it still won’t be as expensive. But anyone who is familiar with technology will know that the cost of new technologies and their implementations are always expensive throughout its conception. It’s only a few years later when costs decline to a more “acceptable” and “gradual” price-point where things begin to move along. Publishers and developers know that console gaming is where it’s at. They know that’s where the majority of gamers spend their time gaming (not knocking the PC industry because I, myself, am a PC gamer). Maybe the OnLive service will be a kick-start for the On Demand Gaming service Rearden’s CEO is predicting it will be. With the console market just becoming more and more attractive to consumers – both gamers and non-gamers – I doubt it will be going anywhere anytime soon.
Some people believe that Microsoft’s next console will be announced at next year’s E3 slated for a 2012 release, as per analysts David Cole and Colin Sebastian. What about Sony? When can we expect to see Sony drop their next console? According to Pachter, don’t expect anything until sometime around 2015. By then the world should be done with. Didn’t the Mayans say something about the world ending in 2012? Fucking speculation – it’s so retarded.
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